Sweeeeeep!

The Gophers made it six-for-six against St. Cloud this season, winning 3-0 at Mariucci Arena Saturday night to sweep the first round WCHA playoff series, advancing to the Final Five, and ending the Huskies' season.

Alex Kangas stopped all 34 St. Cloud State shots, while Ryan Stoa scored twice - the second into an empty net, and Jay Barriball added the other goal for the Gophers. Stoa assisted on the Barriball goal, and defenseman Cade Fairchild added two assists. Jase Weslosky stopped 18 Gopher shots in a losing cause.

The story of Saturday's game was the Gophers' defense. Although out shot significantly by the Huskies, the Gophers' defense rarely offered second chances. The defense collapsed on St. Cloud shots and cleared the puck. On the offensive side, the Gophers capitalized on what few chances they created. Had it not been for the solid play of Weslosky, the margin of victory would have been more significant.

We now move onto the Final Five next weekend in St. Paul. The Gophers are assured of a spot, as they have in every year since 1998 when they lost to UMD in the opening round. The field is also set, as no games went the full best-of-three.

• North Dakota 4, Michigan Tech 3 - The Sioux advance with three goals from Ryan Duncan. The Huskies made it a struggle, but the regular season champions were one better.
• Denver 4, Alaska-Anchorage 3 - The Pioneers survive this series on Luke Salazar's game-winning goal with 48 seconds remaining.
• Wisconsin 4, MSU-Mankato 2 - The Badgers swept this series (against my prediction) with goals from four different players. A night after firing 66 shots at Mankato, Wisconsin had 45.
• Minnesota-Duluth 3, Colorado College 1 - The Bulldogs upset the Tigers behind Alex Stalock's 29 saves. The loss likely ended CC's season.

So, the field is now set for next weekend's tournament:

Thursday, March 19:

• #7 Minnesota-Duluth vs. #5 Minnesota - The Gophers tied and won the only two meetings against UMD this regular season.

Friday, March 20:

• #1 North Dakota vs. UM/UMD - The Sioux swept the Gophers in Grand Forks and lost and tied the only two meetings against UMD at the DECC in November.
• #2 Denver vs. #3 Wisconsin - Denver won all four regular season meetings

Now, for the all-important PairWise....The Gophers remained constant from Friday; still tied for 12th place with Ohio State and Princeton. Ohio State beat Alaska-Fairbanks to force a third game in the CCHA playoffs, while Princeton lost to Union, requiring a decisive third game in their ECAC series. Of the teams ahead of the Gophers, the following teams are either required to play decisive third games in their series tomorrow or have been eliminated:

• #1 Boston University - Lost to Maine Saturday and will play Sunday
• #6 Northeastern - Beat UMass Saturday and will play Sunday
• #8(t) Vermont - Eliminated by Mass-Lowell
• #8(t) New Hampshire - Eliminated by Boston College
• #10 Miami - Lost to Northern Michigan Saturday and will play Sunday
• #11 Cornell - Beat RPI Saturday and will play Sunday

The UMD Bulldogs are lurking right behind in 15th, so Thursday's game will mean a lot. We'll have more on the PairWise later in the week, but at first blush, the Gophers' biggest threat of missing the tournament - short of losing Thursday night - is one of the upstarts listed above winning their conference tournaments and stealing at-large bids from teams like the Gophers, Wisconsin, and UMD.

Personally, I believe the Gophers qualified for the tournament with Saturday's win, but we'll wait until next weekend to sort that out.

One Down!

First, the important stuff....

The Gophers dominated play for the first 40 minutes Friday night against St. Cloud, and then held on for dear life in the final period and escaped with a 4-2 victory in the first round of the WCHA playoffs.

The two teams will meet for game two of the best-of-three series Saturday evening.

Nico Sachetti, Mike Hoeffel, Jay Barriball, and Ryan Stoa (empty-netter) tallied for the Gophers, while Garrett Roe scored both goals for the Huskies. Alex Kangas turned aside 29 St. Cloud shots for the victory, while Jase Weslosky made 33 saves in a losing effort.

The Gophers held a 2-0 lead and a 30-17 shot advantage after the second period, before St. Cloud came out firing in the third period. The Huskies out-shot Minnesota 14-7 in the final period. After controlling the tempo throughout the game, Minnesota was on its heels a bit in the third before Stoa's empty-netter with just over six seconds remaining sealed the victory.

Elsewhere in the WCHA:

• Wisconsin absolutely killed MSU-Mankato, 7-1 in Madison. Blake Geoffrion scored twice, and the Badgers fired 66 shots on goal at Mike Zacharias and Dan Tormey. Wisconsin also scored three times on the power play.
• North Dakota beat Michigan Tech, 5-1 in Grand Forks. Five different Sioux scored in this one, and Brad Eidsness turned aside 20 Husky shots.
• Minnesota-Duluth upset Colorado College, 4-1 in the Springs.
• Denver squeaked past Alaska-Anchorage, 3-2 in Denver.

Gophers' Fate Lies With Selection Committee

The Gopher basketball team played 20 pretty good minutes on Friday, followed by 12 dreadful minutes, and finished up with 8 decent minutes against Michigan State, but it wasn't enough, losing 64-56 to the regular season champions in the Big Ten Tournament. The loss knocks the Gophers out of the tournament and puts their fate squarely in the hands of the NCAA Selection Committee, whose final decision is revealed this Sunday afternoon.

Minnesota came out strongly and its defense was giving Michigan State fits early on. The Spartans were getting chewed up by the Gophers on the glass and their shots weren't falling early. Devron Bostick gave the Gophers a boost early and finished with 12 points off the bench. At the half, the Gophers trailed by just three points.

In the second half, Michigan State's defense simply did not allow Minnesota any good looks at the basket. The Gophers went ice cold from the field, and the Spartans simply closed them out. The Gophers made them work a bit at the end, but it was too late.

Damian Johnson had 19 for the Gophers. Minnesota shot a miserable 38% from the floor and really struggled beyond the arc (3-16) and at the free throw line (13-27). The Gophers' defense forced 15 Spartan turnovers and held them under 50% from the floor.

The Gophers' fate remains to be determined. ESPN.com's Joe Lunardi of Bracketology fame lists the Gophers as a "lock" for the tournament, so things are looking good. However, we'll anxiously await 5pm CDT on Sunday for the selection show.

Elsewhere in day two of the Big Ten Tournament (3 out of 4 today; 6 of 7 thus far):

• Ohio State 61, Wisconsin 57 = I missed this one, but I'm certainly not sad. Huge game for Evan Turner of OSU.
• Purdue 79, Penn State 65 = Despite four of five Penn State starters reaching double figures, Purdue was too much.
• Illinois 60, Michigan 50 - Mike Davis paced the Illini, who will be without starting guard Chester Frazier for the balance of the tournament. He injured his hand in practice earlier in the week. Big loss for the Illini.

Saturday's Games, with predictions:

• Ohio State vs. Michigan State - The Spartans won both regular season meetings. Michigan State will play better than they played against the Gophers and win this one.
• Illinois vs. Purdue - Illinois won both meetings between the two squads in the regular season. The Frazier injury will be hard for Illinois to overcome, but their athleticism will overtake Purdue.

WCHA First Round Playoffs

The Gophers begin their march to a ninth-consecutive NCAA Hockey Tournament bid Friday night at home against the St. Cloud State Huskies needing some work to do. Entering first round play currently ranked 13th in the PairWise, Minnesota is in a "win or else" position. As the tournament extends only 16 bids, and with the potential of upsets in the conference tournaments over the next two weeks, the Gophers are in a position in which they can ill afford to lose any ground in the PairWise. With the Gophers seemlingly struggling their way into the tournament, we get articles like this from the Star Tribune's Jim Souhan. It's interesting that Souhan mentions spotty goaltending as a reason why some may want Lucia gone when Kangas was the sole reason the team was in the tournament last year. The pressure to win here is amazing; on par with Kentucky basketball or Florida football.

This is how Jason Moy of USCHO.com's "Bracketology" segment sees the tournament if it started today. Obviously, a lot of hockey is yet to be played, but it shows just how high are the stakes.

The match-up against St. Cloud is favorable to the Gophers. The teams have met four times this season with Minnesota winning all four games.

• Game 1 - 10/17/08 at St. Cloud = Minnesota opened its regular and conference season with a 3-2 road win behind goals from Tony Lucia, Ryan Stoa, and Mike Carman. Stoa also added an assist, and freshman Jordan Schroeder chipped in with two assists in his first collegiate game. The Gophers out-shout the Huskies 32-22 and Alex Kangas recorded his first victory of the season in goal.
• Game 2 - 10/18/08 at Minnesota = Behind goals by Carman and Jay Barriball, Minnesota won 2-1 on home ice. Kangas stopped 27 of 28 St. Cloud shots to clinch the sweep.
• Game 3 - 1/16/09 at Minnesota = The Gophers started strong with a breakaway goal by Mike Hoeffel 64 seconds into the game and smoked the Huskies 5-1 at Mariucci Arena. Jordan Schroeder, Carman, Justin Bostrom, and Patrick White scored the other goals. The Gophers lit up Cloud goalie Jase Weslosky for 5 goals on just 26 shots, while their own goaltender, Kangas, turned aside 24 Husky shots.
• Game 4 - 1/17/09 at St. Cloud = This one was not for the faint of heart. The Gophers completed the season sweep of St. Cloud with an 8-6 road victory, but they had to survive a ferocious third period comeback by the Huskies to do so. Leading 6-2 after two periods behind goals by Carman, Hoeffel, Stoa, Barriball, Cade Fairchild, and Schroeder, the Gophers chased Weslosky. After backup Dan Dunn entered to start the third period, St. Cloud pumped in two quick Ryan Lasch goals to cut the deficit to 6-4, giving Lasch the hat trick in the game. After Hoeffel widened the margin to 7-4, Jared Festler and Garrett Raboin scored to make it 7-6 with 2:17 remaining to play. However, Stoa put one in an empty net with eight seconds remaining to preserve the victory.

The second series sweep of the Huskies accounted for the lone victories in a 2-6-1 tailspin the Gophers went into between January 9 and February 13, pushing them into the middle of the WCHA and PairWise packs.

This weekend, the Gophers will face the reality of having to beat the same team six times during one season in order to advance in their conference playoffs. In fact, Minnesota is currently riding a five-game winning streak against St. Cloud dating back to the 2008 Final Five. However, it's do-or-die for the Gophers and they have no alternative to making the NCAAs other than turning aside the Huskies two more times.

On the St. Cloud side, they are also residing on the bubble - albeit the low end - after missing two great chances to clinch first round home ice last weekend against MSU-Mankato. St. Cloud is currently 21st in the standings and now needs to run the table in the WCHA playoffs to have a realistic chance at the Tournament for a third consecutive season.

First round predictions (with a lot of upsets possible):

• #10 Michigan Tech at #1 North Dakota = UND in three. The Sioux always seem to drop the first game to create some excitement. Plus, the Huskies are due!
• #9 Alaska-Anchorage at #2 Denver = Upset Alert! However, I think Denver will hold on and win in three games. However, I would not be surprised if the suddenly-hot Seawolves come out of this series standing.
• #8 MSU-Mankato at #3 Wisconsin = Upset Alert, Part Two! I like the Mavericks in this series in three games. However, this won't help the Mavericks' chances on Friday.
• #7 Minnesota-Duluth at #4 Colorado College = Which CC team will show up this weekend? If it's the one with a red-hot Richard Bachmann, then CC will sweep; if it's the one which played inconsistently down the stretch, then the Dogs will win. Having to pick one or the other, I'll go with CC in three hard-fought games.
• #6 St. Cloud State at #5 Minnesota = The Gophers will have the tough task of going for six victories against the Huskies in the same season. However, this is not a good match up for St. Cloud. I'll go with the Gophers in a sweep, with one game going to OT.

Have fun this weekend - Big Ten Tourney, WCHA first round, and the Minnesota State High School Hockey Tournament. We'll have regular updates throughout the weekend for the first two events.

Bring on Sparty!

The Gophers' run to the NCAA Tournament continues after Thursday's 13-point victory over Northwestern. Minnesota had to overcome some tough Northwestern second-half defense before taking command down the stretch in a 66-53 victory in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis. Next up for the Gophers is Big Ten regular season champion Michigan State on Friday morning.

Lawrence Westbrook paced the Gophers' scoring attack with 14 points, all coming in the second half. Devron Bostick added 11 off the bench, and Ralph Sampson III chipped in 9. Colton Iverson came up big in the post, adding two blocks in and three steals. Minnesota held Northwestern to under 33% shooting from the floor - despite 21 points from Kevin Coble (but only two of these came in the second half) - and forced 12 Wildcat turnovers. Reversing a trend from recent struggles, the Gophers took good care of the basketball in this game, with only 9 turnovers.

The Wildcats actually took a lead with just under eight minutes remaining on the heels of a 10-0 run. The Gophers had no answer to NU's 1-3-1 zone during this run. With Northwestern guard Jeremy Nash at the top of the zone, Minnesota went ice cold from the floor and did not take care of the ball, while Northwestern used the momentum to briefly take the lead. However, the Gophers took command down the stretch to seal the victory.

Elsewhere, in first round action (I went 3 for 3 in my predictions, by the way):

• Michigan 73, Iowa 45 = The Wolverines shot almost 60% from the floor on this one, opening up a 21-point lead at the half and cruising to the victory. DeShawn Sims was enormous in this one for Michigan, with 27 points on 12-16 shooting.
• Penn State 66, Indiana 51 = The Nittany Lions rode the scoring from Jamelle Cornley, David Jackson, and Stanley Pringle to send Indiana home with its worst season ever.

Next up for the Gophers is Michigan State. The Spartans took care of the Gophs in both meetings this year.

• Game 1 - 12-31-08 at Minnesota = The Spartans got 24 points from Kalin Lucas, and completely dominated the glass for a 70-58 victory at Williams Arena. The Gophers came into the game 12-0, but were almost doubled-up on rebounding 41-22 (16-7 on the offensive glass). Michigan State won despite shooting 40% from the floor, but second chance points were the story in this game.
• Game 2 - 2-4-09 at Michigan State = The Gophers were simply out-classed by the Spartans in this one, with State building a 42-16 halftime lead in route to a 76-47 victory. Durrell Summers led the scoring with 21 points on 8-10 shooting, and the Spartans shot 51% from the floor, held Minnesota to 29% shooting, and forced 15 turnovers. Sparty started the game on a 16-1 run and never looked back.

So, the Gophers have some work to do, and beating Michigan State will certainly help their chances of getting an at-large NCAA bid. I still believe they need one more victory than their current 22. They are now 22-9 (9-9), and are still on the bubble. The shenanigans in the other conference tournaments are doing nothing to help Minnesota's cause either (i.e. Baylor over Kansas, Oklahoma State over Oklahoma, Big East upsets, etc.). The more Cinderella stories in other conferences only mean Minnesota has to keep winning. I cannot help but think how things would be different now had the Gophers closed out their 12-point second half lead at home against Michigan last Saturday.

To beat Michigan State, the Gophers need to play as close to a perfect game as possible. The Spartans have legitimate aspirations of a top seed in one of the four regionals, and this game is a mismatch for the Gophers. Minnesota will have to force Michigan State's perimeter shooters into poor shot attempts and will absolutely need to perform better on the glass than the other two meetings against State. On the offensive side, they definitely need to take care of the basketball like they did today, but will need to shoot better, especially from beyond the arc, to defeat Michigan State.

In other games on Friday:

• Ohio State vs. Wisconsin - Wisconsin won the only meeting in the regular season. This one will be close, but the Badgers win.
• Michigan vs. Illinois - The two teams split their meetings this season, with no road wins in the two games. I think this is an interesting match-up, and should be a good game. The Wolverines are playing well right now, but Illinois will win with athleticism.
• Penn State vs. Purdue - The teams split their two meetings this season, with each team winning on its home floor. Purdue wins this one, backed by the favorable crowd.
• Minnesota vs. Michigan State - I like the Spartans in this one, which will be more similar to the first meeting than the second.

We'll have updates throughout the weekend on the Gophers' performance, leading up to "Selection Sunday."

Big Ten Tournament - Day One Preview

The Gophers begin their drive to a potential NCAA Tournament berth Thursday against Northwestern in the Big Ten Tournament. The Gophers fell to the eighth seed after losing at home to Michigan in the regular season finale last Saturday, while the Wildcats could not take care of business at Ohio State, falling into the ninth spot and probably missing out on a first-ever NCAA bid.

This game is the third meeting of the two teams, with each squad winning on its home floor. In the first meeting on January 18, the Gophers came in 16-1 and fresh off a miracle win at Wisconsin three nights earlier. After a decent first half in which Minnesota led 34-31, they completely collapsed under a barrage of three-pointers launched by Craig Moore. The senior's 6-9 shooting made him the game's high scorer at 22 points, and the Wildcats used a 43-31 second half run to win 74-65. The Northwestern victory salvaged an 0-4 Big Ten start (highlighted by wins at Michigan State and Purdue) and led the Cats to a middle of the pack performance in the Big Ten until the very end. The loss sent the Gophers into a 5-8 tailspin to close out the season.

The second meeting on February 22 was perhaps the Gophers' finest of the season. Minnesota held Northwestern to 30% shooting (including just 6-19 from beyond the arc), 18 first half points, and doubled the Cats up on the glass in a 72-45 victory at Williams Arena. In this game the Gophers had a balanced scoring attack and shot over 50% from the floor. It was also one of the Gophers' best defensive efforts of the season.

In order to win on Thursday, Minnesota absolutely needs to shut down Northwestern's perimeter shooters. Craig Moore lit them up for 22 in Evanston, but only had three in the second meeting; Kevin Coble had 20 the first meeting and only five in Minneapolis. There is absolutely no reason to believe the Gophers will not dominate again in the paint, as this does not fit Northwestern coach Bill Carmody's "Princeton-style" offense of working the shot clock to eventually get an open jumper.

Minnesota also absolutely needs to win this game to have any shot at the NCAA Tournament. They're on the bubble among bubble teams, and one more conference win will only help their cause. Of course, by virtue of finishing eighth, they get the opportunity to take a third shot at Michigan State if they can get by Northwestern. The road to the tournament will certainly not be easy.

Predictions for Day One of the Big Ten Tournament:

• Penn State big over Indiana
• Michigan over Iowa in a game that is close for 35 minutes before the Wolverines close it out
• Minnesota over Northwestern in a squeaker

On Friday, we'll preview Day Two of the Big Ten Tournament and look at the first round WCHA match ups.

NCAA Hockey Tournament Primer

We may be getting ahead of ourselves a bit by going through the nuances of the NCAA Mens D-I Hockey Tournament, but Donny Puck received requests from readers to explain how the selection works. Nobody but the selection committee can explain the factors which go into the selection, but we'll do our best to try to set the record straight.

First of all, nobody covers college hockey better than USCHO.com. I check the site daily and encourage the readers to do the same.

Some quick facts about the tournament:

• The field is 16 teams
• Each team is placed into one of four brackets; there are no first-round byes
• Similar to the NCAA Basketball Tournament, the format is single-elimination
• There are six automatic bids, awarded to the six conference tournament champions
• The remaining 10 bids are awarded at-large after consideration by the selection committee
• The seedings are determined by the selection committee
• The regionals - and Frozen Four - are hosted by D-I schools
• The preference is to have the host teams play in their own regional, provided they qualify for the tournament

So now that the basics are covered, the subjectivities should also be considered. The six conferences subject to automatic bids are:

• WCHA
• CCHA
• Hockey East
• ECAC
• CHA
• Atlantic Hockey

Of those six conferences, the first four listed are widely considered "major" conferences, meaning that the quality of competition is greater within those leagues. Taking nothing away from the CHA or Atlantic Hockey, but the NCAA Champion has never come from either of those leagues (North Dakota Fighting Sioux fans may insert Holy Cross jokes here).

Also, the CHA currently has four teams. Its regular season champion, Bemidji State, has expressed interest in leaving CHA for entrance into the WCHA. Some have balked at a four-team league gaining an automatic bid in a rather small tournament. The MSU-Mankato Mavericks had an argument along these lines last year when they narrowly missed the tournament despite finishing fourth in an arguably tougher league. Nonetheless, the selection process is what it is, and all six conferences will receive automatic bids.

Currently, the regular season champions for those leagues are as follows:

• WCHA - North Dakota
• CCHA - Notre Dame
• Hockey East - Boston University
• ECAC - Yale
• CHA - Bemidji State
• Atlantic Hockey - Air Force and RIT tied for the regular season title

The conference tournaments will determine who gets the automatic bids. As mentioned earlier, the seedings of these champions are determined by the selection committee.

Where it gets more subjective is for the remaining 10 bids. The PairWise rankings, the statistical basis of which are explained here. I will not bore readers with a regurgitation of the linked piece from USCHO.com, but the intent of the PairWise is to mirror the NCAA Tournament. The rankings have proven to be an accurate predictor of the tourney in recent years.

As a general rule of thumb, the top four teams will be ceded first in the four regional brackets, and the top 14 teams in the PairWise are usually considered locks for the tournament (the final two spots are generally for the champions of Atlantic Hockey and the CHA).

Here is a look at where the various conference regular season champions rank in the most current PairWise.

• WCHA - North Dakota (7th-tie)
• CCHA - Notre Dame (2nd)
• Hockey East - Boston University (1st)
• ECAC - Yale (9th)
• CHA - Bemidji State (Not Ranked)
• Atlantic Hockey - Air Force (17th-tie); RIT (Not Ranked)

With the conference tournaments concluding over the next two weeks, there will be a lot of movement within the PairWise rankings. However, it is entirely possible that a team losing in its conference tournament, or not even qualifying for the tournament, will still be able to secure a spot in the tournament based on its performance in the regular season. For example, Denver lost in the WCHA first round playoffs after the 2003-04 season and went on to win the NCAA title.

Later in the week, we'll have a prediction of the WCHA first round playoffs and will examine intriguing battles outside the conference. We will continue to monitor PairWise movement as well. With the Gophers currently sitting in 13th place, my initial belief is that they need to win twice this weekend against St. Cloud to secure a bid in the field (especially since the Gophers are hosting the Midwest Regional).