Is Ohio State Capable of Two Losses in a Row?

The Minnesota Gophers are not the only ones coming off their worst performance of the 2009 season. The host Ohio State Buckeyes are coming off an embarrassing 26-18 loss at Purdue one week ago. That same Purdue team was fresh off being dismantled 35-20 by the Gophers at TCF Bank Stadium the week prior and had lost five in a row. Yet, the Boilermakers controlled last Saturday's game. They won the total yardage matchup (361-287), held the ball for over 12 minutes longer, and won the penalty game handily over the usually-disciplined Buckeyes (1 penalty for five yards for Purdue; nine penalties for 65 yards for Ohio State). Simply put, the Bucks got waxed in West Lafayette.

That may or may not be good news for the Gophers. After Minnesota's 20-0 loss at Penn State, it was thought not much could get worse for the Gophers. Yet, a trip to Columbus, and a place where they have won just once since 1949 (in 2000), is not a good remedy on the surface.

One has to believe Ohio State will be quite upset after losing to Purdue. They had previously lost this season to USC, but had rattled off five straight wins to move back up to a #7 ranking in the national polls. Last week's loss effectively ends any title aspirations for the scarlet and gray, and they have remaining games with Penn State, Iowa, and Michigan the rest of the way. The road ahead is tough.

The Bucks are led by the erratic Terrelle Pryor at QB. He has completed 56% of his passes this season and has thrown for 10 TDs. Yet, all of Buckeye Nation is talking about his eight interceptions, after throwing just four during his freshman season one year ago. Either way you look at it, OSU's passing attack is the worst in the Big Ten. On the plus side, Pryor has also run for 367 yards and 4 TDs on the season.

Coach Jim Tressel has had to answer questions all week about his use of Pryor, and whether or not the 6-6 sophomore should continue to hold the starting job. In a big week for OSU, the last thing the coaching staff likely needs is a distraction like this, yet Tressel committed to Pryor during the week. It's not like OSU has any other similar options at this time.

OSU has plenty of other options in the offense as well. Junior RB Brandon Saine leads Pryor by a few yards to carry the team's rushing lead with 70 carries for 381 yards, and sophomore Daniel Herron has shown a nose for the end zone this season with five rushing touchdowns. Sophomore wideout DeVier Posey has hauled in 30 passes for 355 yards and four TDs this season, and has found the end zone in each of the last three games. Junior WR Dane Sanzenhacher has demonstrated big-play ability with 326 receiving yards on just 16 catches (20.4 yards per catch) and has also scored four TDs.

The punishing OSU defense has also been tough this season, allowing just 98 points for the 5-2 Buckeyes.

Whatever you think of Pryor as a college QB, the guy is big and has dynamic playmaking abilities. At 6-6, he can punish blockers yet has the elusiveness of a much smaller runner. He is lightning-quick and has shown more passing promise than probably initially thought. The Gophers are going to have their hands full.

Ohio State faces a must-win game this week. With the three tough tests down the road, the Buckeyes are at the tipping point of a season which could end well or very poorly. If they have designs on the BCS, they need to beat the Gophers on Saturday. If the Gophers win, OSU's season is effectively over.

The Gophers absolutely need to try to rush the ball against Ohio State this weekend, and it won't be easy against the big OSU front seven. However, the team cannot abandon the run. If nothing else, it keeps the defense off the field - something the Gophers were not able to do in Happy Valley last weekend, with PSU holding the ball for over 42 minutes. The Gopher defense did not play that poorly against Penn State (they stunk on third down, but were otherwise fine). Weber must play better than he did last week, and it wouldn't kill the Gophers to work MarQueis Gray into the mix a bit to change things up on offense. Purdue took advantage of four OSU turnovers last weekend in the victory, and the Gopher defense has shown an ability to force them - last week excluded.

OSU is beatable, as Purdue displayed last week. However, the Gophers must be opportunistic on turnovers and diversified on offense in order to have any chance on Saturday.

One thing is certain - the Buckeyes will be in a foul mood Saturday after their embarrassment at Purdue. That does not bode well for the Gophers.

Prediction: Ohio State 24, Minnesota 20

Gopher QB Situation Needs a Change

The title of this post should be "Free MarQueis Gray!"

When the Gophers landed the 6-4, 222 lb. QB out of Indianapolis in 2008, it was thought the M&G had one of the nation's best dual-threat quarterbacks coming out of high school. Rivals.com ranked Gray as the third-ranked dual-option QB in the 2008 class and the #1 player in the state of Indiana the same year. He signed with Minny in 2008 but was a partial-qualifier because of academic concerns. However, he has been a member of the 2009 team in good standing.

Despite claims from coach Tim Brewster that the offense would find ways to work Gray into the rotation, the Gophers have largely used the dual-threat QB as a decoy split out wide as a receiver or handing off to a running back most of the time. Through the season's first seven games, Gray has attempted one pass (0-1) and rushed the ball 10 times for 55 yards. He has caught a TD pass, which was his only reception and covered seven yards. There appears to be little effort to get Gray involved in the offense at all.

Meanwhile, three-year starting QB Adam Weber appears to be regressing. The junior is 106-190 for 1,325 yards, 6 TD, and 9 interceptions. 47 completions and 731 yards (and 5 TDs) have gone to WR Eric Decker. That leaves 594 yards to have been distributed to the other receivers in the Minnesota offense. Weber threw for almost 3,000 yards and 24 TDs as a freshman on a 1-11 Gopher team, and was improved as a sophomore last season (15 TD, 8 INT). However, he has looked lost at times in 2009.

Despite claims of a dynamic and complicated offense under first-year coordinator Jedd Fisch, the Gophers' offense looks to be much of the same to prior seasons'. That is, it runs completely through Eric Decker. Now, Decker may just be the best receiver in college football (note, I said best RECEIVER, not best pro prospect). However, defenses know that Weber will lock in on Decker the vast majority of the time, and it's easy to adjust if you know where the ball is going. Couple that with an unwillingness to commit to a running game - or at least to running off tackle - and the Gophers are quickly deemed predictable.

The offense was pitiful last weekend at Penn State, managing just 138 total yards (42 on one Decker reception in the fourth quarter) while holding the ball for just over 18 minutes the entire game. Weber was awful, going 10-22 for 101 yards and a pick, but the entire until was bad. Compounding on a problem I have been discussing privately and which the Star Tribune's Kent Youngblood explored this week has been the team's poor performance on third down. Against Penn State last week, the Gophers' offense was just 3-11, sitting in third-and-long situations just about every time.

The offense needs a kick-start, and Gray can provide it. At bare minimum, work him into the team's third down package. The Gopher teams of the last ten years were successful with QBs Billy Cockerham (pictured right) and Asad Abdul-Khaliq emerging as playmakers. Weber is not a playmaking type of quarterback, and that eases the preparation for the defenses. By putting Gray into the package and letting him do something but hand off, the Gophers will confuse the defenses at bare minimum and begin to convert more efficiently on third down. However, Gopher fans have no idea whether or not Gray is a playmaking type of QB because the team has not allowed him to develop at all. Personally, I would favor putting Gray in as the starter and seeing how he does - today.

They will face an erratic yet big-play threat in Ohio State's Terrelle Pryor this weekend, so the Gophers will see what might have been if they had utilized Gray more effectively.

The bottom line is that Weber is not getting the job done for the Gophers and the offense needs a change. The team has alternated running backs all season long. Why don't they at least try to mix up the QB situation a bit instead of allowing their dual-threat QB collect dust on the bench? It's time for a change - free MarQueis Gray!

Gophers/Sioux: One bad and one good....

Programming Note: I'll be back on the "Papa Joe Chevalier Show" Monday afternoon at 3:30 CDT to talk baseball playoffs. Listen online here.

After the nightmarish performance at the Ralph Englestad Arena last season in which the Gophers were swept away and out-scored 12-4, Minnesota was looking for a better start in Grand Forks this weekend. It looked good for about five minutes of the first period, and then it morphed into something previously seen last season.

UND out-shot Minnesota 43-22 and took the opener 4-0 on Friday night before a raucous sellout crowd of almost 12,000. Brad Eidsness turned aside all 22 Gopher shots, but few shots were quality scoring opportunities. On the other end of the ice, Minnesota goalie Alex Kangas made 39 saves, many of them spectacular, and kept the game from being an even bigger embarrassment. The game slipped away from the Gophers in the second period, which saw UND out-shoot Minnesota 19-9 and completely control the play.

Jason Gregoire, Derrick LaPoint, Chay Genoway, and Mario Lamoureaux each scored for UND, and 11 different Sioux picked up points in the balanced attack. The Sioux scored twice on the power play and once short-handed, as the Gophers' special teams really struggled in the opener.

North Dakota simply out-skated, out-hustled, out-shot, and out-manned Minnesota in the opener. The message boards were alive after Friday's game, calling for coach Don Lucia's head.

Thankfully, the Gophers played better in Saturday's game. They took an early lead on Jay Barriball's goal, only to see it evaporate on two Genoway power play goals. A nice goal by Mike Hoeffel tied the score in the second period, and Hoeffel's tally midway in the third period gave the Gophers an lead. However, defenseman Jake Marto's long shot eluded goaltender Kent Patterson and gave the Sioux a 3-3 tie. The game's final 10 minutes (including OT) features some solid action with scoring opportunities on both ends, but both teams had to be satisfied with one point.

The Gophers were much better in Saturday's game. However, they were still out-shot 34-19 in the second game, making the UND advantage 77-41 in the two-game series. Jordan Schroeder was held to three shots for the entire weekend. The penalty-killers played to a 67% success rate this weekend, as the Sioux were 2-6 both nights. Considering the stark stat disadvantages, it's fortunate the Gophers came away from Grand Forks with any points.

The message-boarders can take it easy on Lucia and the Gophers for a while at least. The Gophers were coming off an off-week and only played one exhibition game to tune up for a trip to Grand Forks, The Sioux, on the other hand, played a non-conference tune-up series at home the weekend prior. Now, it's understandable for fans to be a bit upset about the perceived lack of effort on Friday night, but it was the first game, for crying out loud! Have our expectations become that much more unreasonable?

The road gets no easier for the Gophers next weekend. They return home, but must face preseason consensus WCHA champion Denver. The Pioneers are coming off non-conference splits against Vermont and Ohio State - both tournament teams from a season ago - and will be a tough test for the Gophers. If the M&G plays like it did Saturday in Grand Forks for the upcoming series, they'll be fine.

My Examiner weekend recap is posted here. Check that page often during the week as we prepare for the league's first full slate of conference play next weekend.

Rout in Happy Valley

The Gopher football squad put up one of its more pathetic offensive performances in recent memory Saturday, managing just 138 total yards, as #14 Penn State cruised to a 20-0 homecoming victory. The conditions at Beaver Stadium were less than ideal for the game, with the six inches of snow which fell on the region prior to the game. However, the Gophers were the only ones who appeared to be caught in the mud.

PSU RB Evan Royster ran 23 times for 137 yards - virtually as much as the entire Gopher squad, and QB Darryl Clark overcame a sluggish start to complete 21 of 32 passes for 287 yards and a TD.

The Penn State defense, ranked sixth in the country going into the game, punished the Gophers all day long, and never allowed them to get anything going. The time of possession bore this out, with the Nittany Lions holding the edge 41:59 to 18:01 for Minnesota.

Penn State also held a stark edge in third down conversions, making good on 11 or 17 attempts. The Gophers, on the other hand, were just 3-11 on third down.

The Gopher defense played pretty well in the first half, despite being on the field almost the entire game. The defense held Penn State to just two field goals, until PSU's long 12-play, 91-yard drive to cap the first half. WR Derek Moye stretched out to catch a Clark pass in the end zone, but was ruled out of bounds by officials. After further review, the Nittany Lions were given credit for a touchdown, as the replay officials ruled that Moye had control of the ball when he got his requisite one foot down. Replay evidence appeared inconclusive at best, and the Lions took a 13-0 lead into halftime instead of a more manageable 9-0, assuming PSU would have converted on the field goal in the waning seconds of the half.

Adam Weber's numbers were pathetic on Saturday, completing just 10 of 22 passes for 101 yards and a pick. To be fair, Weber's protection was suspect all day, as the offensive line play was rather miserable. However, it may be time to consider MarQueis Gray or someone else at the QB spot. A noticeable difference between Weber and other QBs the Gophers have faced this season has been the ability to make plays, especially on third down, which is something Weber has been complete devoid of doing this season.

The Gophers are now 4-3 overall and 2-2 in the Big Ten. The road gets no easier, as Minnesota travels to Columbus, Ohio next weekend to take on Ohio State. The Buckeyes were shocked by a Purdue team the Gophers dominated one week ago, but the Buckeyes will definitely be up for this one. The Gophers did beat OSU in Columbus in 2000, so there's always a chance. Of course, they beat Penn State in Happy Valley in 1999, too.

Update: Weather Will Affect Gophers/Penn State

Here's a picture of Penn State's Beaver Stadium from Friday evening. Six inches of snow have fallen in Happy Valley, with another six inches expected to fall overnight. By gametime, there will be a rain/snow mix.

Sounds like good running game weather, no?

Check back here Sunday for a recap of this game. Monday will feature a recap of the Gophers/North Dakota hockey series.

Have a good weekend.

Gophers/Penn State Football Preview

Ten years ago, Glen Mason's Gopher football team marched into Beaver Stadium to take on second-ranked Penn State. The Nittany Lions had a punishing defense which featured LBs LaVar Arrington and Courtney Brown, who would end up going 1-2 in the 2000 NFL Draft the following spring. The game looked like a mismatch, but the Gophers had played PSU tough in Mason's first two years at Minnesota.

In 1997, the Gophers led 15-3 in the 4th quarter before a PSU touchdown cut the margin to 15-10. Later, a terrible official's call missed a Penn State receiver running out of bounds and then re-entering the field to catch an important pass which set up a second Curtis Enis touchdown to give the Nittany Lions a 16-15 win over a Gopher team which finished 1-7 in the Big Ten.

In 1998, the Gophers again played Penn State tough. The Gophers cut the PSU deficit to 16-10, before Kevin Thompson hit Corey Jones for a 65-yard TD pass. What the officials missed, again, was Jones stepping out of bounds before he re-entered the field and caught the pass. The TD took all the wind out of Minnesota's sails and Penn State escaped with a 27-17 win.

The 1999 game featured a Gopher team which had lost consecutive tough games to Ohio State and Purdue - both at home - and stood at 2-3 in the Big Ten and 5-3 overall. Eyeing their first bowl appearance since 1986, the Gophers absolutely needed at least one win in their final three Big Ten contests, which were the Penn State game in Happy Valley, at home against Indiana, and at a terrible Iowa team in Kirk Ferentz's first season.

The Gophers trailed 20-14 in the 4th quarter, before Thomas Hamner got loose on a screen pass from Billy Cockerham and sprinted 49 yards for a TD. The score was tied because the Gophers failed to convert on a two-point conversion. After Travis Forney kicked a field goal to give PSU a lead with 9 minutes and change to go, the Gophers faced a 4th and long just inside the Penn State 40 yard line with less than a minute to play. However, Cockerham's Hail Mary was tipped by WR Ron Johnson and fell into the hands of Arland Bruce to complete the "Immaculate Deflection" and put the Gophers in position for a winning field goal. Dan Nystrom's 32-yard field goal gave the Gophers a 24-23 shocker at the gun and was the signature win of the Mason era.

Ten years later, there are indeed some similarities between the 1999 and 2009 Gophers heading into Happy Valley. Coach Tim Brewster is in his third season at Minnesota, as was Mason in 1999. The Gophers currently sit at 2-1 in the Big Ten and need a few more victories to become bowl-eligible. However, the biggest similarity between this year's situation and that of 1999 is that Coach Brewster desperately needs a signature victory to cement his stamp on the program.

It will be difficult in State College this weekend. Penn State is not as good as advertised early on, but they are still ranked among the nation's top 15 teams. The Nittany Lions are 5-1, losing only to Iowa three weeks ago, and are fresh off crushing victories at Illinois and at home against non-conference powerhouse Eastern Illinois.

PSU senior QB Darryl Clark has been efficient so far in 2009, completing over 60% of his passes and connecting for 12 touchdowns against 7 interceptions. He has also run for 3 TDs on the ground, and has averaged over 4 yards per carry. On the ground, junior Evan Royster is having another solid season, rushing for 504 yards and 4 TDs this season, one year after a 1,236 yard and 12-TD campaign. Sophomore RB Stephfon Green has also emerged in 2009, gaining 248 yards and 3 TD on 45 carries. Penn State's receiving core is deep, with Derek Moye, Chaz Powell, Graham Zug, Andrew Quarless, and Joe Suhey all surpassing the 100-yard mark this season.

Penn State's defense is strong. They have given up only 61 points in six games this season, and 21 of those were in the team's long loss to Iowa.

The Iowa game proved that Penn State's offense can be forced into turnovers if defenses can get to Clark and make him uncomfortable throwing the ball. As is the case with any mobile QB, if given time to make plays, they will usually find ways to make plays.

The Gophers finally broke through last week against Purdue and controlled the line of scrimmage offensively. The Gophers rushed for 207 yards and finally found a running back, freshman Kevin Whaley, who can run off-tackle. Whaley gained 79 yards on 8 carries and had a large role in running significant time off the clock down the stretch. One game after fumbling in his only carry, Duane Bennett is once again in the Gophers' good graces, with 9 carries for 53 yards last week.

QB Adam Weber put the ball in the air only 9 times last week, completing 5 and getting picked twice. The less Weber is relied upon to make a play, the better it is for the Gophers if they have designs on winning.

The defense and special teams have made plays all season long for the Gophers. Although the defense has given up yards in bunches in 2009, they have shown they have play-making ability, especially in the linebacking and secondary corps. They'll need both to step up against Penn State.

If the Gophers want to win this weekend, they need to play football like they did in the third quarter of the Purdue game. The Gophers dropped a hammer on the Boilermakers in the third, outscoring them 21-0 and completely dominating the play. They forced turnovers and did not allow Purdue to do anything offensively. They'll need to do the same offensively against Penn State.

Look for the Gophers to give Whaley the first opportunity to be the future back on Saturday. He is the Gophers' potential big-play back, and is explosive. He can definitely run off-tackle, something the Gophers have been unwilling or unable to do all season. The Gophers should try to establish the run early on and attempt to control the clock to keep their defense off the field. This will also limit Weber's feeling he has to force the ball to Eric Decker at all costs, and one can bet the Nittany Lions will be keying on Decker constantly.

On defense, it would be nice to see the Gophers have a consistent pass rush to put pressure on Clark. He showed in the Iowa game he will try to force the ball in to his receivers if he's panicked. The Gophers' linebacking has been strong all season long, so if Clark tries to force something over the middle under duress, look for Lee Campbell to get in the way.

Penn State can be beaten. As is the case with just about every PSU team over the past decade, they start the season with a lot of hype, get exposed, and lose to a good team. Coach Joe Paterno likely last did some actual coaching during the Reagan Administration, but fans will be filled with stories of how Joe Pa actually walks to work or even kicked an onside kick during a practice three years ago. This is a good matchup for the Gophers - certainly much better than next week against Ohio State - and will be a good test of how good and athletic is Brewster's 2009 edition.

Prediction: Penn State 27, Minnesota 21.

Tough Opening Weekend Test for Gopher Six

The Gophers were 10-3-5 when they made the trek northward to take on the North Dakota Fighting Sioux on January 9-10, 2009. The Sioux were 11-10-1 going into that series and were coming off a three-game stretch where they lost to Michigan Tech (winners of six games all of last season) and two one-goal games at home against Bemidji State.

The Gophers got off to a strong start last season, but would have to make the trip to Grand Forks without their coach, Don Lucia, who was home ill for the weekend with an unknown disorder. The Gophers played like they were punched in the gut all weekend long, and the Sioux buzzed around for two games and thoroughly dominated Minnesota in the two-game sweep, out-scoring them 12-4. The weekend ignited a stark contrast in the teams' directions, as Minnesota would finish 5-7-2 and miss the NCAA Tournament, while UND would go 9-2-3 the rest of the way to capture the MacNaughton Cup as WCHA regular season champions.

The Ralph Engelstad Arena is perhaps the toughest place to play in the WCHA, and the Gophers will have to kick off the 2009-10 season in Grand Forks this weekend. If there is one advantage to going to Grand Forks, the fact that the Gophers are going up there before the new year works in their favor. UND traditionally makes its annual run in the second half of the season and traditionally starts slow. However, this is a rivalry series in which both teams will be jacked.

The Gophers were idle last weekend after opening their schedule with a 6-1 exhibition win over British Columbia on October 4. The Sioux swept Merrimack at home last weekend. Both teams come into the series ranked and are expected to be among the WCHA's elite in 2009-10.

For North Dakota, a group of talented freshmen will once again supplement the strong returning core. Freshman forward Michael Cichy had a great weekend in his first collegiate action, scoring 1-2-3 and picking up WCHA rookie of the week honors. Fellow freshman Danny Kristo picked up two assists against Merrimack, and is a strong candidate to win rookie of the year honors. Returnees Chris VandeVelde, Brett Hextall, and Jason Gregoire will be strong up front, and captain Chay Genoway provides plenty of scoring punch from the blueline.

In goal, Brad Eidsness returns and figures to see the majority of action. He is solid, if not spectacular, and was so last weekend against Merrimack.

For the Gophers, fans will get their first opportunity to see touted newcomers D Nick Leddy, D Seth Helgeson, and F Zach Budish this weekend under somewhat hostile conditions. Sophomore Jordan Schroeder returns, and much will be expected of him in his second season. Coach Lucia will start the season with a top line of Schroeder, senior Jay Barriball, and junior Mike Hoeffel, which will be expected to produce a ton of offense. The Gophers are experienced with only two seniors lost from last year's squad and four freshmen to work into the lineup.

Another feature this year's Gopher squad will have over last year is size - especially on the blue line. The 6'5" Helgeson will join holdovers David Fischer (6'3") and Sam Lofquist (6'2") to create a sizable defensive corps. The big guys will nicely compliment smallish puck-movers like Cade Fairchild and Leddy. Budish is 6'3" up front and plays his size. How he comes back from a knee injury suffered his senior year of high school remains to be seen.

The key to this season is in goal, and Alex Kangas is due for a bounceback season. Kangas's numbers dropped significantly from his tremendous freshman-year marks, but he was solid down the stretch when the team most needed it. Sophomore Kent Patterson will likely get more starts this season, but look for Kangas to carry the load again.

It's a good time to be going up to Grand Forks. In addition to being notoriously slow-starters, UND is a young team working in a bunch of freshmen. They also do not have a marquee scoring threat for the first time in recent years (see T.J. Oshie, Jonathan Toews, Ryan Duncan of late) - at least not yet. The Sioux will be up for the Gophers this weekend, but look for the M&G to put on a much better show than last season.

Prediction: Split

PS - Check out my WCHA Examiner home page for season previews for both squads. Also, take a look on the blogroll on the left side, especially Brad Elliott Schlossman of the Grand Forks Herald and Roman Augustoviz of the Star Tribune, for all the latest news from around the league.