Monday, April 6, 2009

Twins' Opening Day Roster Analysis

First off, a big HT to AG.com for the mention in his Friday column. To those readers checking in from Aaron's site, welcome, and be sure to check back all season. Also, a big thank you to Seth Stohs for adding Donny Puck to his impressive blogroll. Be sure to check out Seth's site and join me in ordering his 2009 Twins Prospect Handbook.

We all know that catcher Joe Mauer is starting the 2009 season on the DL; the same for opening day starting pitcher Scott Baker. We also know the Twins will be without the services of relief pitchers Pat Neshek and Boof Bonser all season as they recover from Tommy John surgery. The reality is that teams often times break camp and head north to begin the season with their healthiest players, and not their best ones.

With Matt Tolbert's option to AAA Rochester on Friday, the Twins' 25-man opening day roster is now set. They'll start the year with 12 pitchers and 13 position players.

We'll break down the roster by position:

Starting Rotation:

Francisco Liriano

  • Age: 25
  • MLB Service: 2 years
  • Throws: Left
  • 2008 Numbers: 6-4; 3.91 ERA; 76 IP; 32 BB; 67 K; 1.395 WHIP
  • Career Stats
  • Outlook: In second season removed from Tommy John surgery, Liriano looks to lead the Twins' rotation and become the team's ace. Could be in line for a huge year.

Kevin Slowey

  • Age: 24
  • MLB Service: 2 years
  • Throws: Right
  • 2008 Numbers: 12-11; 3.99 ERA; 160.1 IP; 24 BB; 123 K; 1.154 WHIP
  • Career Stats
  • Outlook: Perhaps the Twins' most consistent starter in 2008, Slowey took huge strides in his first full season in the majors. He's a pitcher in the Twins' mold: doesn't walk anyone, hits his spots, and has a quality mix of pitches, none of which is dominant. He's a solid third starter.

Glen Perkins

  • Age: 26
  • MLB Service: 3 years
  • Throws: Left
  • 2008 Numbers: 12-4; 4.41 ERA; 151 IP; 39 BB; 74 K; 1.470 WHIP
  • Career Stats
  • Outlook: Tied with Slowey for the most wins on the staff, Perkins fell into Ron Gardenhire's disfavor somewhat with a series of clunkers in late August and throughout September. Still, in just his first season in the rotation (and logging more professional innings than ever before), Perkins showed moxie early on.

Nick Blackburn

  • Age: 27
  • MLB Service: 2 years
  • Throws: Right
  • 2008 Numbers: 11-11; 4.05 ERA; 193.1 IP; 39 BB; 96 K; 1.360 WHIP
  • Career Stats
  • Outlook: Blackburn was a pleasant surprise in his first season in the rotation, leading the team in innings-pitched. The Twins' top pitching prospect going into 2008 was a hard-luck loser many times throughout the season - including the 1-0 loss in game #163 vs. Chicago - and provides solid back-of-the-rotation depth.

R.A. Dickey

  • Age: 34
  • MLB Service: 6 years
  • Throws: Right
  • 2008 Numbers (SEA): 5-8; 5.21 ERA; 112.1 IP; 51 BB; 58 K; 1.558 WHIP
  • Career Stats
  • Outlook: Probably just a rotation care-taker until Scott Baker returns from the DL, Dickey could be valuable in long relief, where he excelled last season in Seattle, compiling an ERA just over 2.00.

Bullpen:

Luis Ayala

  • Age: 31
  • MLB Service: 5 years
  • Throws: Right
  • 2008 Numbers (WSH/NYM): 2-10; 9 Saves; 5.71 ERA; 75.2 IP; 24 BB; 50 K; 1.454 WHIP
  • Career Stats
  • Outlook: Probably will get a look in the middle innings, Ayala is an experienced set-up man who suffered through a miserable season last year with Washington and the NY Mets. Still, the Twins are hopeful he'll be able to help bridge the gap between the starting rotation and Joe Nathan.

Craig Breslow

  • Age: 28
  • MLB Service: 3 years
  • Throws: Left
  • 2008 Numbers (MIN/CLE): 0-2; 1 Save; 1.91 ERA; 47 IP; 19 BB; 39 K; 1.128 WHIP
  • Career Stats
  • Outlook: A nice surprise after being claimed on waivers from Cleveland, Breslow was handed the situational lefty role after Dennys Reyes and Eddie Guardado were allowed to depart via free agency. He'll see time in the eighth inning to set up Nathan.

Jesse Crain

  • Age: 27
  • MLB Service: 5 years
  • Throws: Right
  • 2008 Numbers: 5-4; 3.59 ERA; 62.2 IP; 24 BB; 50 K; 1.372 WHIP
  • Career Stats
  • Outlook: Crain seemed to get stronger as his first year after shoulder surgery progressed. Crain will probably get a lot of early looks in the eighth inning to see if he can handle those pressure spots. If he can handle these situations, the Twins will breathe a lot easier, as this is the major hole in their pitching staff.

Brian Duensing

  • Age: 26
  • MLB Service: None
  • Throws: Left
  • 2008 Numbers (AAA): 5-11; 4.43 ERA; 138.2 IP; 34 BB; 77 K; 1.327 WHIP
  • Career Stats
  • Outlook: 2008 US Olympian Duensing won a spot in the bullpen after a strong spring. He'll work in long relief initially and may see some of the spots Craig Breslow worked last year if he's effective early on.

Matt Guerrier

  • Age: 30
  • MLB Service: 5
  • Throws: Right
  • 2008 Numbers: 6-9; 5.19 ERA; 1 Save; 76.1 IP; 37 BB; 59 K; 1.585 WHIP
  • Career Stats
  • Outlook: Guerrier really struggled in 2008 after being forced into a role to which he was not accustomed. He'll return to his middle relief role in 2009 and should be quite effective.

Philip Humber

  • Age: 26
  • MLB Service: 3
  • Throws: Right
  • 2008 Numbers: 0-0; 4.63 ERA; 11.2 IP; 5 BB; 6 K; 1.371 WHIP
  • Career Stats
  • Outlook: Humber probably only is on this roster due to injuries and the fact he is out of options. Still, the Twins are intrigued by his potential and if he can find his collegiate form. He'll start the year in middle relief and could be a rotation candidate if injuries hit.

Joe Nathan

  • Age: 34
  • MLB Service: 9 years
  • Throws: Right
  • 2008 Numbers: 1-2; 39 Saves; 1.33 ERA; 18 BB; 74 K; 0.901 WHIP
  • Career Stats
  • Outlook: An All-Star in 2008, Nathan was his usual solid self. He had some hiccups in late August, but was steady down the stretch.

Catchers:

Mike Redmond

  • Age: 38
  • MLB Service: 11 years
  • Bats/Throws: R/R
  • 2008 Numbers: .287/321/.333; 0 HR; 12 RBI
  • Career Stats
  • Outlook: A solid backup catcher, Redmond is most effective playing once a week and keeping the team loose in the clubhouse. How long he is forced to be the Twins' primary catcher will go a long way in determining if the team will win the AL Central or finish low in the standings.

Jose Morales

  • Age: 26
  • MLB Service: 1 year (1 game, actually)
  • Bats/Throws: R/R
  • 2008 Numbers (AAA): .315/.348/.426; 4 HR; 15 RBI
  • Career Stats
  • Outlook: The Twins kept Morales instead of Drew Butera because Morales has more pop in his bat. He played one game for the Twins in 2007, went 3-3, and severely sprained his ankle. He played essentially on one ankle in 2008 before being shut down.

Infielders:

Justin Morneau

  • Age: 27
  • MLB Service: 6 years
  • Bats/Throws: L/R
  • 2008 Numbers: .300/.374/.499; 23 HR; 129 RBI
  • Career Stats
  • Outlook: Morneau was headed toward a second MVP award before he completely went cold the final week of the season. Without Joe Mauer's protection in the order, he may be pitched-around early in the season. Still, he'll likely produce huge numbers in 2009.

Alexi Casilla

  • Age: 24
  • MLB Service: 2 years
  • Bats/Throws: S/R
  • 2008 Numbers: .281/.333/.374; 7 HR; 50 RBI; 7 SB
  • Career Stats
  • Outlook: Casilla pouted after being sent down out of spring training last year, hit .219 in Rochester prior to his recall last April, and then solidified the Twins' middle infield with his arrival. He still has a lot to improve upon, including pitch selection, but the Twins' starting 2B should be solid in 2009.

Nick Punto

  • Age: 31
  • MLB Service: 8 years
  • Bats/Throws: S/R
  • 2008 Numbers: .284/.344/.382; 2 HR; 28 RBI; 15 SB
  • Career Stats
  • Outlook: A favorite of Ron Gardenhire - and frequent villian to this blogger - Punto was rewarded for his fine utility work with a two-year contract this past off-season and was handed the starting SS job. As long as he stays in either the eighth or ninth position of the batting order, the Twins won't be hurt too much by his limited offensive production. If he's hitting in the mis-cast #2 slot, the Twins will suffer.

Joe Crede

  • Age: 30
  • MLB Service: 9 years
  • Bats/Throws: R/R
  • 2008 Numbers (CWS): .248/.314/.460; 17 HR; 55 RBI
  • Career Stats
  • Outlook: Coming over from the White Sox, Crede will solidify the 3B position, provided his injured back holds up. His numbers should give the Twins production from the position not seen since Corey Koskie's departure.

Brian Buscher

  • Age: 27
  • MLB Service: 2 years
  • Bats/Throws: L/R
  • 2008 Numbers: .294/.340/.390; 4 HR; 47 RBI
  • Career Stats
  • Outlook: Buscher will provide a left-handed bat off the bench while spelling Crede at 3B or Morneau at 1B occasionally.

Brendan Harris

  • Age: 28
  • MLB Service: 5 years
  • Bats/Throws: R/R
  • 2008 Numbers: .265/.327/.394; 7 HR; 49 RBI
  • Career Stats
  • Outlook: Harris snagged the final roster spot and is out of options. He's a solid utility player who can play all infield spots and provide some punch off the bench.

Outfielders:

Delmon Young

  • Age: 23
  • MLB Service: 3 years
  • Bats/Throws: R/R
  • 2008 Numbers: .290/.336/.405; 10 HR; 69 RBI
  • Career Stats
  • Outlook: Young rebounded somewhat from a slow start, but the production figures were off from the year prior. Also, his defense was very suspect in LF. Still, he's 23 years old and has a ton of potential. He's likely have to rotate among the four outfielders this year, which is not good for his maturation into a potential All-Star-caliber player.

Carlos Gomez

  • Age: 23
  • MLB Service: 2 years
  • Bats/Throws: R/R
  • 2008 Numbers: .258/.296/.360; 7 HR; 59 RBI; 33 SB
  • Career Stats
  • Outlook: Gomez's defense is spectacular and the Twins never missed a beat with him out in CF replacing Torii Hunter. At the plate, there is still a lot of work to be done. His 5-tool potential is still there, but it's a few years away, at best. His plate discipline is very poor. Among the four-man OF rotation, he's easily the best defender, and should warrant every-day play in CF.

Denard Span

  • Age: 25
  • MLB Service: 1 year
  • Bats/Throws: L/L
  • 2008 Numbers: .294/.387/.432; 6 HR; 47 RBI; 18 SB
  • Career Stats
  • Outlook: Span came out of nowhere and locked-down the RF job after Michael Cuddyer went down in April. His solid defense in a position he had not played in a long time gave the Twins reasons to smile. He was also a pleasant surprise at the plate and needs a solid second season to prove he won't revert to his minor league figures, which were lower than he put up in the majors in 2008.

Michael Cuddyer

  • Age: 30
  • MLB Service: 8 years
  • Bats/Throws: R/R
  • 2008 Numbers: .249/.330/.369; 3 HR; 36 RBI
  • Career Stats
  • Outlook: Cuddyer suffered through an injury-plagued year and was supplanted in RF by rookie Denard Span. He'll return to RF this year - at least initially - shifting Span to LF and forcing a rotation among the top 4 outfielders. Still, Cuddyer needs a solid bounce-back year in 2009 to avoid being deemed expendable by the Twins.

Jason Kubel

  • Age: 26
  • MLB Service: 4 years
  • Bats/Throws: L/R
  • 2008 Numbers: .272/.335/.471; 20 HR; 78 RBI
  • Career Stats
  • Outlook: Kubel finally received 500 AB's in a MLB season and responded by being the team's third-best hitter. He'll be the primary DH in 2009 and should enjoy a breakout season.

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